China to take a more cautious approach towards Russia after Wagner's mutiny, says expert According to Sheng Dingli, an international relations expert from Shanghai, the mutiny of Evgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner's private military company (PMC), will force China to change its foreign policy position on Russia and the Ukrainian conflict to a more cautious one. The article was published in The Guardian.
The incident with Wagner's PMC will increase Russia's dependence on China, according to Sheng. The article notes that the Chinese government will welcome a quick deal with Prigozhin, mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is an important partner to China and supports Beijing's position on the global stage, especially on Beijing's calls for the global South to join in the fight against US hegemony.
The authors of The Guardian believe that China will now take a position of observer and is unlikely to try to interfere in Russia's domestic politics for its interests, as "any interference could harm relations" with both Putin and his future successor as president of the country.
On June 25, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its support for Russia in light of the situation with Wagner's PMC. Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu also talked with his Russian counterpart, Andrey Rudenko, about the need for China and Russia to maintain stable relations and protect their joint interests during a difficult international environment.