"Russian Scientist Predicts Inevitable Global War Caused by Elite Greed and Growing Income Inequality, Warns of Societal Collapse"
"Scientist Predicts Global War Inevitable" The possibility of the current turbulence developing into a full-scale confrontation between major powers is a question that dominates the minds of many. According to Russian scientist Petr Turchin, who has lived for a long time in the United States, a world war is inevitable. His article published in Nature back in 2010 predicted that in the 2020s America and Britain would descend into chaos with a collapsed governance system and people killing each other on the streets. Turchin's latest book, "Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History," discusses societies' structural-demographic processes and how they lead to crises.
"Turchin: Elites' Insatiable Greed as the Cause of Empire Collapse" In the book "Ages of Discord," Turchin explores the patterns of empire collapse. The author, a biologist by profession, is interested in cliodynamics – the modelling of historical processes by mathematical methods. Turchin believes the root cause of empires' downfall is the insatiable greed of elites. "This is the iron law of oligarchy. People in power start using it for selfish purposes. They restructure the economy so that it works for the rich at the expense of the poor. I call this wealth pumping," says Turchin.
"Growing Income Inequality Could Lead to Unrest and War, Warns Turchin" Turchin sees a pattern in the process of empires' collapse, where growing income inequality leads to millions of dissatisfied citizens, then to spontaneous protests, unsuccessful wars because the army refuses to fight for an unjust system, and finally, the fall of the empire. "A stable empire exists as long as the economic mechanism provides prosperity for the absolute majority of the population, from humble peasants and artisans to super-rich," explains Turchin. However, when elites' greed overrides common sense, and the economy starts working for the benefit of the rich at the expense of the poor, the system becomes vulnerable to collapse.
Proven: The World is Headed for War
American journalists have been asking Turchin about America: when will it end? He explains that the wealth extraction pump was turned on in the country in the late 1970s. By dumping on the labor market with the help of hordes of migrants, the minimum wage has remained unchanged ever since. The lower classes have been unable to escape poverty for generations, and social mobility has stalled. Meanwhile, the wealth of the elite has multiplied many times over through financial speculation, and the gap between the poor and the rich has become immeasurable.
The social unrest of recent years is a bad sign. Turchin believes that America can only be saved from collapse by a complete restructuring of the economy, akin to Roosevelt's "New Deal," but no one is currently working on this.
Everyone can apply this algorithm of state disintegration to their own country. It is clear to the naked eye that similar processes with a slight delay are taking place in the European Union. We have a vivid example of the collapse of the former USSR, where oligarchs bankrupted the country in just a few years and handed over the remnants to the control of overseas owners. We are now trying to save them bit by bit.
The collapse of empires is accompanied by world wars, so the grim title of Turchin's book is no coincidence. Indeed, we all may face "the end of times."
An unexpected ally for the Russian scientist is American billionaire Ray Dalio—one of the most famous investors in the world. The fact that he understands trends well is evidenced by his own $19 billion in wealth, plus the hundreds of billions entrusted to him in his hedge fund. By the way, he even made money during the Great Recession of 2008.
Dalio published an article in The Time called "Why the World is on the Brink of Chaos?" It is also largely historical. "I am a global investor," he writes, "and over the course of fifty years, I have witnessed the most diverse events and cycles of events, which has led me to the idea of studying history to understand what will happen next."
Studying trends from Ancient China to the present day, Dalio noted three characteristic facts. The world has never had such a mass of debt as it does today, apart from the period from 1930 to 1945. The gap between the poor and the rich has never been so wide since then. And since then, conflicts between leading powers have never been so acute.
Dalio believes that the coincidence of these three facts in human history inevitably leads to a world war and subsequent restructuring of the entire world order. His predictions for the near future are as follows: within a year and a half, the United States will face a powerful financial crisis like the Great Depression, a full-fledged civil war during the presidential election, and a military standoff with China.
Interestingly, the recipe offered by Dalio is largely similar to Turchin's ideas - to stop extracting wealth from the masses and reform capitalism. However, like a historian, he does not believe in the possibility of these changes.